APPENDIX K

HOUSING GAP ANALYSIS

Introduction

As outlined in the guidelines for an Executive Order 418 Community Development Plan, one of the core elements is the housing component.  According to the guidelines, the requirements of the housing section are “designed to provide communities with a base level of information…to determine proactively how increasing the supply of housing can meet the needs of current and future residents in a way that preserves both quality of life and sense of place.”  One of the main goals of the housing component is to assess current and future housing demand, supply, cost and affordability in order to identify potential gaps for supply of housing for individuals and households of a variety of incomes.  In 1998, the Town of Concord produced the Housing Plan Task Force Report which included documentation of housing types and an analysis of current housing trends and recommended actions for the Town to take to address certain housing issues. 

As follow-up to the 1998 report and according to the requirements of Executive Order 418, the focus of this report is to provide an expanded housing analysis with particular focus on the gap between housing supply, demand, and affordability.

Change in Population and Households in Concord

A community’s housing needs change over time as the size and composition of the population evolves and housing preferences shift.  Different social and economic factors may influence whether families choose to rent or buy, construct new homes or renovate old homes.  The size and type of homes are also influenced by family size, householder age, and economic status.

The population of Concord has remained stable over the past decade at approximately 17,000.  There have been some significant shifts in the composition of the Town’s population in that time, with the adult population declining in the 20 to 34 year age bracket by 48% and increasing in the 75 and over bracket by 38%.  

Households by Size and Tenure

Although the total population did not grow, the number of households has increased by 255 or approximately 5%.  As the data in Table 1 reflects, the net increase has occurred in the number of owner-occupied households, which rose by 8%, but corresponded with an equivalent percentage decrease in renter-occupied households. In 1990, 22% of the town’s households were renters, by 2000 the ratio fell to 18%.  This change is also reflected in an outflow of available renter housing units.

The largest net increase occurred among single-person households. The Town has a smaller average household size and has experienced an increase in the percentage of elderly residents.  In summary, while the overall population stayed the same, the number of households has increased, with more owner-occupied units and fewer people per household.

Table 1: Population, Households, Tenure and Household Size for Concord, MA

               Source: U.S. 2000 Census

 

Housing Supply

Housing Tenure

As of 2000, there were 6,153 housing units in Concord.  Concord’s owner-occupied housing units increased during the decade, but the total number of rental units decreased.  The data indicates that Concord’s housing stock continues to grow at a faster rate than the population and parallels a national trend of decreasing household size.  The number of homeowner occupied units is rising at a more rapid pace than rental units, which will influence the affordability of housing as a whole.

Table 2: Housing Supply by Tenure

	1990	2000	Change	% Change
Total Housing Units	5,917	6,153	236	4.0%
Total Occupied	5,693	5,948	255	4.5%
Owner-Occupied	4,439	4,803	364	8.2%
Renter-Occupied	1,254	1,145	109	-8.7%
Total Vacant	224	205	-19	-8.5%
Vacant for Rent	52	44	-8	-15.4%
Vacant for Sale	86	47	-39	-45.3%
Rented or sold, awaiting occupancy	31	38	7	22.6%
Vacant Seas, Migratory, Occ. Use, or Other	55	76	21	38.2%
Total Stock Occupied or Available for Occupancy	5,831	6,039	208	3.6%
Vacancy Rate Ownership	1.9%	0.6%
Vacancy Rate Rental	4.0%	3.2%

Source: U.S. 2000 Census

 

Vacancy Rates

Concord’s rental vacancy rate declined from 4% in 1990 to 3.2% in 2000.  The homeownership vacancy rate declined from 1.9% to 0.6% in the same period.  The vacancy rate includes those units which were vacant and for sale or for rent at the time of the Census, but does not include units that have been rented or sold and awaiting occupancy, seasonal units, or other vacant units that were being held off market or retained for other purposes. 

Generally, housing vacancy rates of 5% for rental units and 2% for ownership stock are thought to be sufficient for accommodating reasonable housing choice.  Throughout the region, the ownership and rental vacancy rates remain below the desired averages (see Table 3).  Factors that would account for this trend include high employment growth and increased housing demand and a lag in housing production as well as the increased housing costs that result from a tight housing market.

Table 3: Regional Comparison of Occupied Housing Stock and Vacancy Rates in 2000